Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • United Kingdom
  • Italy
  • France
  • Sweden
  • North Macedonia
  • Montenegro
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Andorra
  • Slovenia
  • Moldova

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $515,391$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,758$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,092.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,092.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $470,503$ on 2020-11-11

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,417,709$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,105$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,146.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,146.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,227,228$ on 2020-11-11

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,260,198$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $50,457$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,117.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,117.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,206,723$ on 2020-11-11

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,028,424$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,953$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,651.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,651.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $613,358$ on 2020-11-11

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,914,918$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,599$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,347.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(31,347.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,733,142$ on 2020-11-11

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $166,707$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,197.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 130.9)}}\) (asimptote \(121,197.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,082$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,824.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,824.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $160,625$ on 2020-11-11

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,540$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,212$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,314.8}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 171.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,314.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,975$ on 2020-11-11

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,865$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,061.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 254.7)}}\) (asimptote \(58,061.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $356$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{933.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 254.6)}}\) (asimptote \(933.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,967$ on 2020-11-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 57%
Andorra recovered 23%
Slovenia recovered 12%
Moldova recovered 10%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,142$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $542$ on 2020-11-11

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,567$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 24.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,004$ on 2020-11-11

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,939$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $645$ on 2020-11-11

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,717$ on 2020-11-11

Moldova⮸

Population $4,033,963$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,707$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{154,118.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 235.1)}}\) (asimptote \(154,118.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,950$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,612.0}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 190.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,612.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,642$ on 2020-11-11